November 03, 2010
Posted by:
GCP Election Team
The focus of this year’s election has been on the impact it will have on the immediate political agenda. Republican victories in Columbus and Washington will likely have a dramatic influence on state and federal budget and policy discussions.
But also important in Ohio is the significance these victories will have on the state’s political landscape for the next decade. As a result of the 2010 elections, the Republicans will have the ability to determine the boundaries of the state’s legislative districts. This means the resulting districts will, in many cases, favor Republican representation at both the state and federal levels for another 10 years.
GOP victories in the contests for Governor, Secretary of State, and Auditor guarantee Republican control of the Ohio Apportionment Board, which redraws Ohio’s state House and Senate districts at the beginning of each decade. As the old adage goes, the party that controls the pen controls the state legislature. For the last several decades, the party that has controlled the Apportionment Board has dominated the Ohio Legislature. Republicans will now redraw Ohio’s legislative lines to accommodate population shifts and have the ability to assist in the control of the Ohio House and Senate for the next 10 years.
The Apportionment Board is comprised of five members: Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State and a Republican and Democrat representative from the Ohio General Assembly. The Apportionment Board will meet in 2011 and draw new state legislative lines prior to the 2012 primary elections.
While the Apportionment Board draws state legislative districts, the General Assembly and Governor decide on Ohio’s Congressional district lines. As a result of the 2010 census, which showed that Ohio’s population growth has not kept pace with the rest of the country, Ohio will likely have two fewer representatives in Congress. Therefore, the General Assembly and Governor have to enact legislation prior to the 2012 primary designating Ohio’s 16 Congressional districts. Since the Republicans control all three entities, they now will draw the new Congressional Districts. That will allow Republicans to consolidate Democrat districts and strengthen existing Republican members’ districts.
Given state population shifts, Northeast Ohio will almost certainly lose a district. Republican leaders are likely to look at consolidating Democrat districts in Northeast Ohio. If Ohio loses two seats, the Republicans now will have the power to redraw state Congressional lines and ensure these are both Democrat losses. And, it virtually ensures that one of the three Democrats from Northeast Ohio will not be in Congress after the 2012 election.
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