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2010
October
Odds running high that GOP will take U S House Kasich to win site says

Odds running high that GOP will take U.S. House, Kasich to win, site says

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2012
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10. October
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11. November
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12. December
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October 18, 2010

Posted by: Josh Rubin

Wanna bet?

It seems as though everyone you ask has a different opinion about who is going to win on Nov. 2. But are all these “experts” willing to put their money where their mouth is?

If you are, you might want to try www.intrade.com. Intrade is a prediction market that allows you to bet on everything from who will control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate to whether Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee in 2012. It also allows you to bet on things outside of politics, such as global temperatures and who is going to win “Dancing with the Stars!”

But getting back to politics…What is interesting about the intrade Web site is that the “odds” are based on what people think is going to happen during the upcoming election. For example, on Tues., Oct. 12, the closing bid of a bet that the Republicans will take over the U.S. House of Representatives was 79.2, which means that, based on current trading, there is a 79.2 percent chance the Republicans will gain control of the House.

On the other hand, the closing price on Oct. 12 of purchasing a bid that the Democrats will keep control of the House was 20.0, which means there is a 20 percent chance of that happening.

The price for Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate was 26 as of Oct. 12, with the price of Democrats keeping control running at 37.5. (see www.intrade.com for rules)

You also can bet on Gov. Ted Strickland’s re-election at a price of 35 (meaning there is a 35 percent he will be re-elected). Or you could bet that John Kasich will be elected at a price of 76 (meaning there is a 76 percent chance he will win).

In terms of a predictor, intrade has been remarkably accurate. Studies show that the average prediction error is 1.5 percent, while the average error on polls we watch closely is 2.25 percent.

So be sure to check out intrade to see how the odds are trending. And, for what it is worth, according to intrade, it is a pretty good bet that Howard Stern will sign a new contract with satellite radio before the end of the year!

Josh Rubin is a federal affairs consultant for the Greater Cleveland Partnership.

Category: Advocacy

Tags: U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Republicans, Democrats, election, Kasich, Strickland