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A poll worth watching presidents job approval rating signals change in US House seats

A poll worth watching: president’s job approval rating signals change in U.S. House seats

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September 22, 2010

Posted by: Josh Rubin

A telltale sign that we’re into election season is the release of daily polls, which are supposed to give voters an indication of what will happen on Election Day. They include head-to-head match-ups, the generic ballot, right track vs. wrong track, and the list goes on. One poll, however, may be especially worth watching as we get closer to Nov. 2 – president’s job approval.

Rarely does a president’s party fare well in midterm election of his first term in office. Gallup recently looked into this and found a very telling statistic: Over the past 60 years, if a president’s approval rating is above 50 percent at the midterm, his party loses an average of 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. If that rating is below 50 percent, the president’s party loses an average of 36 House seats. A startling difference!

The Real Clear Politics running average of President Obama’s approval rating is 45.3 percent. Watch that number and look for the White House to do everything it can to boost that rating over the next five weeks.

—Josh Rubin, GCP federal affairs consultant

Category: Advocacy

Tags: election, Obama, daily poll, U.S. House